Potential impact of this week’s Australian Election on Immigration Levels

Australian Election: Implications for Immigration Policy

With the Australian federal election taking place this weekend, many are eager to understand how the outcome might shape the nation’s immigration policies. Immigration has long been a pivotal issue, influencing Australia’s economy, social cohesion, and multicultural identity. This election could herald changes to the number and makeup of immigrants, depending on the party or coalition in power.

Understanding Australia’s Political Landscape

For those unfamiliar with Australian politics, it’s important to note that the country operates under a parliamentary system. There are two major parties: the Australian Labor Party (ALP), which leans center-left, and the Liberal-National Coalition, which represents conservative values. However, Australia’s democracy also features numerous smaller parties and independents who often hold the balance of power in parliament. Australians vote for parties, not individuals, though the leader of the winning party typically becomes the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister’s role differs significantly from that of a president in other systems. Rather than wielding unilateral executive power, the Prime Minister leads a team of ministers responsible for various portfolios such as education, agriculture, and the environment. Decisions are made collaboratively, reflecting a more administrative and less authoritarian approach. Additionally, Australia has a Governor-General, a representative of the King, who serves as a symbolic head of state. This position rotates roughly every seven or eight years and is separate from politics.

This governance model resembles a round-table structure, where collaboration and accountability are key. Politicians are often viewed as administrators, tasked with managing the nation’s resources rather than exerting control over its people.

Shifts in Voting Behavior

According to recent polls, Australians are likely to vote for small parties and independents at a record level. Both major parties—the ALP and the Coalition—are predicted to receive historically low percentages of votes. This trend suggests that independents and smaller parties will play a decisive role in shaping the next government. These groups are anticipated to lean toward supporting the current Labor government, which could result in a minority Labor government collaborating with independents and minor parties to pass legislation.

Thus, while Prime Minister Anthony Albanese may retain his position, the composition of parliament will likely shift, influencing the policies the government can implement—immigration being one such area.

Current Immigration Levels

For the 2024–25 fiscal year, Australia’s permanent Migration Program is capped at 185,000 places, slightly reduced from the 190,000 allocated in 2023–24. The program aims to address critical skill shortages, promote regional development, and strengthen family and community connections.

The program is divided into three main streams:

• Skill stream (71%): 132,200 places, focusing on improving the economy’s productive capacity and addressing labor market shortages, particularly in regional areas.
• Family stream (28%): 52,500 places, enabling family reunification and supporting community ties.
• Special Eligibility stream (<1%): 300 places, catering to exceptional circumstances.

This balanced approach seeks to maintain Australia’s economic growth while supporting social cohesion.

Party Positions on Immigration

Labor Party (Incumbent Government)

Labor supports maintaining the current migration cap of 185,000 places, emphasizing skilled migration to address labor shortages in critical sectors like healthcare and aged care. It also promotes regional migration to ease congestion in urban areas and encourage growth in rural communities. Additionally, Labor advocates for modest increases in humanitarian visas, focusing on regional resettlement and community sponsorship.

Liberal-National Coalition (Opposition)

The Coalition proposes reducing permanent migration by 25%, citing concerns over housing affordability and infrastructure pressure. Their policies include reintroducing a specialized agricultural visa to address farm labor shortages and enhancing border security to reduce asylum seeker arrivals.

The Greens

The Greens take a markedly progressive stance on immigration. They advocate for doubling Australia’s humanitarian intake to 50,000 refugees annually, ending offshore detention of asylum seekers, and increasing community-sponsored refugee places. Their policies focus on humane treatment and sustainable practices.

Minor Parties and Independents

Smaller parties have varied positions:

• One Nation: Advocates significant reductions in immigration, emphasizing cultural assimilation and national security.
• Trumpets of Patriots: Proposes drastic measures, including an 80% cut in immigration and doubling visa fees.
• Independent Candidates: Many independents, particularly former Coalition members who have shifted away from conservative stances, are unlikely to support reductions in immigration. These candidates at a huge impact on the last election and this is likely to be the case again.

What to Expect After the Election

Given the current political dynamics, potential migrants to Australia can anticipate a continuation of similar immigration levels in the near future. The most likely outcome is a minority Labor government that collaborates with the Greens and independents to pass legislation. This arrangement could lead to modest increases in humanitarian intake and further support for regional migration policies.

Takeaway

The upcoming Australian election underscores the vibrancy of the nation’s democracy, with citizens increasingly turning to independents and smaller parties to represent their diverse views. While the exact outcome remains uncertain, Australia is poised to maintain its balanced approach to immigration, addressing both economic needs and social responsibilities.

The only thing we know for sure is that there will be the democracy sausage sizzle outside polling booths.

Sources: Australia Unwrapped. “Labor vs. Coalition: Comparing Policies Ahead of the 2025 Election.” January 16, 2025.

Australia Unwrapped. “The Debate Over Australia’s Immigration Cap in the 2025 Election.” January 20, 2025.

ABC News. “What Labor, Liberals, Nationals and the Greens Stand For.” March 31, 2025.

The Australian. “Visa Pledge Triggers Warnings.” [May 1. 2024].